In recent times, international news has been dominated almost by the situation in Iran and the attitude of Trump towards the war。

AND ONE THING, THE HEADLINE IN 2025, IS RARELY MENTIONED IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA TODAY – ON FEBRUARY 14, DUE TO THE DEADLOCK BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS OVER THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (DHS) ALLOCATION BILL, THE DHS WAS PARTIALLY SUSPENDED。

As of today, the pause is not over。

OVER 100,000 DHS EMPLOYEES WERE UNABLE TO RECEIVE THEIR SALARIES DURING THE LAST TWO MONTHS OF THEIR SUSPENSION, AND NEARLY 11% OF TSA STAFF WERE ABSENT. IN NEW ORLEANS, PASSENGERS QUEUING FOR SECURITY SCREENING MOVED FROM INSIDE THE TERMINAL TO OUTSIDE THE ROOM AND EVEN REACHED THE ENTRANCE SEVEN TIMES AROUND THE PARKING LOT。

FOR THE UNITED STATES, WHICH HAS LITTLE OR NO HIGH IRON NETWORK AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AIR TRAVEL, THE VOLATILITY OF THE CIVIL AVIATION SYSTEM IS FATAL. EVEN MASK HAS PUBLICLY OFFERED TO PAY THE AFFECTED TSA EMPLOYEES。

From March onwards, too, Polymarket's forecast of the weekly update of US flight delays – how many flights a trader can bet a week of delays – predicts that money will be made, and wrongs will be lost。

In addition to this purely recreational event, Polymarket has a few topics of considerable reference. Through the probabilities reflected in these topics, we can try to interpret the current state of government stagnation and even the real state of affairs in the United States。

A bipartisan game

This pause has broken the 35-day record of Trump. In the midst of large-scale delays in flights and the imminent breakdown of the security system, the end of parking is a matter of utmost concern to affected populations in the United States。

So far, there have been incidents on Polymark: "DHS stoppage will end ." At the time of submission, the probability of termination between 5 and 8 April was 44 per cent, while the probability of closure in April was 14 per cent。

There are a lot of "smart money" on these two time nodes — senior traders who have had a high degree of accuracy in past predictions and a high level of profitability in the political arena. Behind the image of the transaction, there is a clear logic: if the pause ends in a window from 5 to 8 April, the likelihood of reaching an agreement within the month will be significantly reduced。

From 5 to 8 April, when the National Assembly returned to work after taking leave, the two parties will put the appropriation bill back on the table. If agreement can be reached within a few days of resumption of work, the bill will come to an end when it is submitted for signature by both houses of Parliament。

However, if this window is lost again, the Senate and the Senate will then fall into other agendas. In the absence of strong political pressure, the incentive for the two parties to return to the negotiating table will be significantly diminished。

MASK'S "PAY" AND ICE'S "TOP"

As a result of the serious delays at the main airports caused by the continued departure of TSA staff, Mask wrote on March 21, expressing his willingness to pay the TSA staff, which led to the Polymark transaction "Will Mask pay the TSA staff? "。

However, shortly after Mask wrote, the White House rejected the proposal on the grounds of legal compliance and conflict of interest: Under United States federal law, government employees are not permitted to accept external remuneration in connection with their official duties; combined with Mask's deep involvement in federal government contracts, direct payment of wages faces serious conflict of interest challenges。

THE GROUNDS FOR REFUSAL ARE LEGAL, BUT THE PEOPLE STILL LIVE. TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE AVIATION SYSTEM ON THE MID-TERM ELECTIONS, IN MARCH TRUMP ORDERED THE DEPLOYMENT OF ICE AGENTS TO THE AIRPORT TO REPLACE TSA STAFF WHO HAD SEPARATED WITHOUT PAY。

BUT THE SCENE AFTER ICE AGENTS LANDED AT THE AIRPORT MADE THE WHOLE PAUSE LOOK EVEN MORE RIDICULOUS。

WHEN TRUMP CAME TO POWER, ICE, IN PURSUIT OF ITS GOAL OF "ARRESTING 3000 PEOPLE EVERY DAY AND EXPELLING MILLIONS OF PEOPLE EVERY YEAR", IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE RECRUITMENT AND TRAINING PROCESS — IT IS PLANNED TO RECRUIT 10,000 ADDITIONAL LAW ENFORCEMENT PERSONNEL AND TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL TRAINING SCHEDULED FOR 16 WEEKS TO 8 WEEKS。

IN SHORT, THE PROFESSIONAL QUALITIES OF ICE AGENTS THEMSELVES HAVE BEEN QUESTIONED。

TSA SECURITY REQUIRES SYSTEMATIC TRAINING COVERING CORE SKILLS SUCH AS X-RAY MACHINE OPERATIONS AND EXPLOSIVE DETECTION, WHICH ICE AGENTS DO NOT POSSESS AT ALL。

SO THIS IS A HISTORICAL SCENE: WHILE TSA EMPLOYEES ARE ON DUTY FOR FREE, THEY ALSO SHOW ICE AGENTS THE SECURITY PROCESS AND TEACH THEM HOW TO MAINTAIN ORDER. THE MAJORITY OF ICE AGENTS, INSTEAD OF ACTUALLY CARRYING OUT SECURITY CHECKS, PATROLLED THE TERMINAL AND USED THEIR LAW ENFORCEMENT IDENTITIES TO SCREEN AND DEPORT SUSPECTED ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS。

THE RESULTS OF THE FARCE WERE CORROBORATED BY DATA: THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT DELAYS FOLLOWING ICE ' S ARRIVAL AT THE AIRPORT. AS AT THE END OF MARCH, THE UNITED STATES AVIATION SYSTEM CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE THOUSANDS OF DAILY DELAYS, WITH ALMOST 40 PER CENT ABSENTEEISM AT ATLANTA AIRPORT AND MORE THAN 350 SINGLE-DAY DELAYS. THESE FIGURES SHOW THAT THE ICE AGENTS WHO WERE SUPPOSED TO BE THE BRAKES DIDN'T PLAY THE ROLE ANYONE EXPECTED。

The nuclear option to break the deadlock

Another transaction related to the suspension of the government is "Will the Republicans use the `nuclear option' to break down the proceedings before December 31, 2026?", with a current probability of 31%。

At first glance, the term "nuclear option" is quite a lie; but in American politics, it is not a literally nuclear weapon, but a very small but destructive Republican agenda。

In the United States legislative system, the House of Representatives is responsible for proposing and drafting fiscal appropriations bills, and the Senate for deliberation and voting. Normally, the Senate ends the debate and moves forward with 60 votes - This means that the minority parties can block any bill by delaying the debate indefinitely, with only 41 votes。

The "nuclear option" provides a way around this threshold: a motion of procedural appeal by a senator to overturn the ruling of the presiding officer by a simple majority (51 votes), thus pressing down the threshold of 60 votes for the closing of the debate。

The Republican party of the Senate currently holds 53 seats, and once the nuclear option is launched, the Democratic Party will have almost zero resistance。

But the "nuclear option" is being referred to as "nuclear" because it is costly for the users themselves: breaking the rules of procedure of the Senate will be perceived by voters as an abuse of power; and more importantly, the same rules will be countered by the Democrats once the Republicans lose the majority in the future。

The pits dug today may be filled in the future by themselves. This probability is the true pricing of this dilemma on the market。

At the same time, while the stalemate is still pending, Trump will have to deal with the continuing warming of the situation in Iran。

On the one hand is a high-pressure game between diplomacy and the military, on the one hand, the airport team, the salary arrears and the bipartisan — a time when the United States government needs to combine its problems far more than the headlines show. The internal and diplomatic crises never wait for the other party to resolve them first。

And in this turmoil, predicting the rich political and current events on the market will continue to serve as an objective mirror to help us capture the true course of these narratives。