Introduction: “Changes and changes” in the cyclical pattern

BitcoinHalve supply increments every about four years, a mechanism that also shapes the cycle of the encrypted market. However, since April 2024, when the fourth halving was completed, the performance of Bitcoin prices and the entire encrypted market has taken on new and different characteristics. According to historical experience, halving is often a predictor of the bottom of the bear market, after which, in about one year, Bitcoin will peak in a new round of cattle. The cycle of 2024-2025, however, has puzzled many investors – while bitcoin prices have indeed reached record highs, the market has not been marked by past popular fanaticism, but rather by a slow and moderate increase in volatility, leading many to doubt that the four-year cycle seems to have failed。

What are the different characteristics of this cycle and what are the remaining parts of the four-year cycle theory still in force? What has led to a change in the rhythm of the current cycle? What will happen to Bitcoin in the future, given the multiple effects of changing macro-environments, the influx of institutional funds and the dilution of the diaspora? The present paper will analyse the market performance of the half-cycle of the current round of bitcoin, explore the changes and causes of its cycle patterns, and look at price trends in late 2025 and 2026, in an attempt to provide investors with a comprehensive and insightful analysis。

II. Performance and characteristics of the half-cycle of bitcoin in the current round

Source:https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/crypto-market-cycle-indicators/

On 19 April 2024, Bitcoin completed the fourth block award, which was halved from 6.25 BTCDOWN TO 3.125 BTC. AT THE PACE OF PREVIOUS CYCLES, THE HALVING OFTEN OCCURRED AT THE END OF THE BEAR MARKET, FOLLOWED BY MARKET SHIFTING WITHIN 12-18 MONTHS. BUT PROGRESS FROM 2024 TO 2025 HAS BOTH A CYCLICAL DIMENSION AND A DISTINCT “DIFFERENT” CHARACTER。

• An overview of price trends: New and rising。Bitcoin prices were close to $64,000 on the day of the halving. Over the following months, the mood fluctuated, but overall the upward trajectory continued: By mid-November 2024, Bitcoin had broken the $90,000 threshold; on December 5, 2024, after the dust from the presidential election had fallen and the good news was coming out, Bitcoin had broken the $100,000 milestone and reached a new high. In 2025, the price of bitcoin continued to climb: on 6 October 2025, it peaked at about $126,270. This peak appears to be around 18 months after halving it and appears to be similar to the previous cycle. However, the increase in the current round has been relatively slow and moderate, and there has been a lack of the type of index-grade frenzy that prevailed at the end of the previous cycle. From its lowest point in the bear market in 2022 (~$15,000), Bitcoin to its highest point increased by a factor of 7-8, while when it was halved in 2024 (~$64,000) it only tripled. In contrast, cattle markets increased almost 20 times more than their TTs from bear bottoms in 2017 and about 3.5 times more in 2021. It is clear that the slopes and ranges at the top of the current round have shrunk significantly and are characterized as “low cattle”。

• Market sentiment and volatility: frenzy is absent and volatility slows down。AT THE SAME TIME AS THE PRICE IS HIGH, THE MARKET HAS NOT EXPERIENCED THE POPULAR ENTHUSIASM OF THE PAST. IN LATE 2017 AND LATE 2021, THE PEAKS OF THE CATTLE MARKET WERE MARKED BY A WAVE OF POPULAR RHETORICAL AND MACABRE COINS. AND THIS TIME, EVEN THOUGH BITCOIN'S PRICE EXCEEDED $100K, THE POPULAR MOOD REMAINED RELATIVELY CALM, AND DID NOT TRIGGER A BOOM LIKE 2017 OR 2021 NFTDog moneyIt's kind of popular. Chain data show that during the current round of cattle markets, capital was concentrated in large currencies, such as bitcoin, with market occupancy at one point approaching 60 per cent, and many of the more speculative silos were weak. Market volatility has also been significantly reduced, with annual volatility gradually declining from an earlier high of over 140 per cent; in the second half of 2025, while short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin increased, the overall lack of a previous sharp roller coaster-type surge was more restrained and slower。

• The multi-band movement is moderate and lacks a “final boom”。It is a matter of concern that the high point in the cattle market in 2024-2025 was not a one-time blowing bubble, but a phased arrival. From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, Bitcoin was repeatedly consolidated near $100K before being innovatively high: in January, MicroStrategy announced a large purchase story that raised the price to $107K; after the August peak, Bitcoin fell rapidly from $124K to below $118K, due to poor inflation (PPI) data. Until early October, when the last wave of the market was pushed up to $126K, there was no "last madness" of the past cycle: High spots are emerging, followed by continuous depression, falling further by almost 30 per cent in six weeks, touching a new seven-month low of about $89,000 in mid-November. It can be said that the current round of cattle market prices, which have been innovatively high but without a bursting acceleration, has become more than alarming throughout the upswing and has ended with a quick and rapid retreat。

• The four-year cycle is partially aligned: lower point - higher time window。DESPITE THE “UNUSUAL” NATURE OF MANY ASPECTS OF THIS CYCLE, ONLY IN TERMS OF TIME AND PATH IS THE CLASSIC “FOUR-YEAR CYCLE” CONTOURS ONLY. AT THE END OF 2022, BITCOIN WAS BUILT NEAR ~16,000, APPROXIMATELY ONE YEAR AFTER THE TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ROUND ($69,000 IN NOVEMBER 2021); HALVING IN APRIL 2024 LARGELY MARKS THE END OF BEAR CITY; AND MEETING AT THE TOP OF THE WHEEL APPROXIMATELY 18 MONTHS AFTER HALVING (OCTOBER 2025), SIMILAR TO THE HISTORIC TIME WHEN MORE THAN ONE HUNDRED, 2017, 2021 ROUNDS OF CATTLE WERE CUT BY HALF EACH. THUS, THE CYCLE HAS NOT YET BEEN COMPLETELY OFF TRACK IN THE CONTEXT OF THE BROAD FRAMEWORK OF “HUNDRED-TO-COW-TOP-CUB”. AS THE ANALYSIS POINTS OUT, “FROM HALVING IN APRIL 2024 TO $125K IN OCTOBER 2025, IT TOOK ALMOST 18 MONTHS. IF YOU LOOK AT THIS PATH ALONE, IT SEEMS TO FOLLOW THE CYCLICAL PATTERN: HALVING THE MARK AT THE BOTTOM, REACHING ITS PEAK ABOUT A YEAR LATER, AND THEN ENTERING A RECALL PERIOD”。

In summary, market performance prices after halving the current round are indeed much higher, and the broad time window of the cycle matches expectations, but the quality of behaviour and the experience of market participants are clearly different from the past. As a result, an increasing number of investors are beginning to question whether the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin has lapsed. So which parts of the traditional cycle theory are still working and which are changing。

III. Four-year cycle theory. How do you like it

Despite the appearance of confusion, an in-depth analysis shows that the core logic of the Bitcoin “four-year cycle” has not completely disappeared. The changes in supply and demand resulting from halving demand continue to support prices in the long run, and the cyclical mindset of investor greed and fear remains cyclical, although the current round is more moderate。

• The long-term effects of supply contraction remain。The reduction by half every four years of the Bitcoin block incentive means that new supplies continue to decline, which is the underlying logic behind successive cattle markets. Even though at present the total supply of bitcoin is close to 94 per cent of the ceiling and the marginal reduction of supply by halving each time is shrinking, “frequent” markets are expected to remain. In the past cycle, the belief that it was long-term after halving became evident that holding and not selling was the choice of many investors. The same is true of the current round, which halved the circulation of new currency from 900 to 450 per day in April 2024, while most long-standing holders chose to remain in currency despite sharp price fluctuations and did not sell large amounts of leverage because of relatively limited increases. This means that the austerity effect of supply contraction continues to work in the market, although the rebalancing of supply and demand has been weaker than before。

• The chain-cycle indicator continues to dance in rhythm。BITCOIN INVESTORS CONTINUE TO BEHAVE IN A TYPICAL “ACCUMULATION-BENEFITING” CYCLE, WITH MANY CHAIN INDICATORS CONTINUING CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE MVRV (MARKET VALUE/REAL VALUE RATIO) TENDS TO FALL AT THE END OF THE BEAR MARKET AND RISES TO OVERHEATED AREAS WHEN CATTLE MARKETS RISE. IN 2024, MVRV PEAKED AT ABOUT 2.8 IN THE CATTLE MARKET AND FELL BACK BELOW 2 AT THE BEGINNING OF 2025. SOPR = 1 IS CONSIDERED TO BE A WATERSHED, WITH LESS THAN 1 INDICATING THAT THE MAJORITY SELLS CURRENCY AT A LOSS, AND MORE THAN 1 INDICATING THAT MOST TRANSACTIONS HAVE BEEN CLOSED. THE INDICATOR REMAINED AT MORE THAN 1 FOR MOST OF THE TIME IN THE PERIOD FROM 2024 TO 2025, IN LINE WITH THE SITUATION IN HISTORICAL CATTLE MARKETS. SIMILARLY, THE RHODL INDICATOR, WHICH MEASURES THE RATIO OF SHORT- AND LONG-TERM HOLDER FUNDS, ALSO REACHED A HIGH CYCLICAL LEVEL IN 2025, SUGGESTING THAT THE MARKET STRUCTURE IS AT AN ADVANCED STAGE AND THAT THERE ARE TOP SIGNS. IN GENERAL, TYPICAL CHAIN INDICATORS SUCH AS MVRV, SOPR, RHODL CONTINUE TO OPERATE ON AN INHERENT CYCLE AND, ALTHOUGH THE ABSOLUTE LEVEL OF VALUES HAS CHANGED, THE CYCLE OF INVESTOR GREED-FEAR MOODS CONTINUES TO CHART A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY IN THE CHAIN。

• Historical data: Declining returns but not missing trends。From a more macro point of view, the decline in peaks per cycle is a corollary to the expansion of market size and does not mean that the cycle disappears. The historical peak rate of return has indeed been less than one round: in 2013 it increased by about 20 times relative to the previous round, in 2017 by about 20 times (compared to prices at the end of 2013), while in 2021 it increased by only about 3.5 times relative to 2017. In the current round, from a peak of $69,000 in 2021 to $125,000 in 2025, only about 80 per cent (0.8 times). The marginality of the rate of return is normal: the larger the market volume, the weaker the marginal force of the new capital, so the decline is not evidence of cyclical ineffectiveness, but a natural result of mature markets。

Summary:The bottom drivers of the traditional four-year cycle (subsistence contraction, investor behaviour patterns) continue to play their part in the current round, with halving still bringing supply and demand points, and markets following the “fear-vory” cycle. At the same time, however, a range of new factors are disrupting and rewriting the “surface form” of periodic performance, making the outer rhythm of the cycle elusive。

IV. The truth about cycle imbalances: the proliferation of variables and fragmentation of narratives

If the inherent logic of halving the cycle is still in place, why is it so hard to read? The underlying reason is that the single pace (driving by halving) that dominated the market in the past is now being disrupted by multiple forces. Multiple factors interact and create a complex new pattern。

Source:https://coinmarkcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/ 

1. STRUCTURAL SHOCKS TO ETF AND INSTITUTIONAL FINANCE。SINCE 2024, THE REAL BITCOIN ETF HAS BEEN APPROVED AND CONTINUOUSLY LISTED IN THE UNITED STATES, AND THESE ETFS HAVE INTRODUCED A CONSTANT FLOW OF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS, CHANGING THE MARKET ' S PREVIOUS RULES OF THE GAME, WHICH WERE DOMINATED BY BULK AND LEVERAGED FUNDS, AND BRINGING LARGE-SCALE INCREMENTAL CAPITAL TO THE MARKET. AS OF OCTOBER 2025, THE TOTAL ASSET HOLDINGS OF THE UNITED STATES-LISTED BITCOIN ETF AMOUNTED TO $176.0 BILLION. THE ENTRY OF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS NOT ONLY RAISED PRICES BUT ALSO INCREASED MARKET STABILITY: DATA SHOW THAT THE AVERAGE COST OF CONSTRUCTION BY ETF INVESTORS IS AROUND $89,000, A PRICE THAT HAS BECOME AN EFFECTIVE SUPPORT FOR MARKETS. HOWEVER, WHEN THE UNILATERAL MOODS IN THE MARKET ARE REVERSED, LARGE AMOUNTS OF ETF HOLD-UPS ARE TURNED INTO SALES PRESSURE, WITH UNPRECEDENTED RAPID LIQUIDITY SHOCKS. SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2025, THERE HAS BEEN A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS WITH THE EMERGENCE OF MACRO-LEAF. SINCE 10 OCTOBER, UNITED STATES SPOT BITCOIN ETF HAS OUTFLOATED APPROXIMATELY $3.7 BILLION, OF WHICH $2.3 BILLION OCCURRED IN NOVEMBER. AS CAN BE SEEN, THE MARKET STRUCTURE OF THE ETF ERA IS “STABLER AND MORE FRAGILE”: SLOW CATTLE FLUCTUATED, BUT WHEN CRITICAL SUPPORT (E.G., THE AVERAGE COST OF $89K) FAILED, THE PEDAL FELL MORE INTENSELY。

Source:https://coinmarkcap.com/etf/bitcoin/ 

Source:https://coinmarkcap.com/charts/bitcoin-treaties/ 

2. The fragmentation of narratives and the acceleration of hot-spot rotation。In the last round of the 2020-2021 cow market, the market formed a continuous lead-line story around DeFi and NFT, promoting the orderly transfer of funds from bitcoin to more high-risk assets. However, the hot spots of the current round of the market are characterized by fragmentation and flowering. The fast pace of the narrative wheel has made it difficult for the funds to switch and stay on a plate for a long time, and the traditional “bitcoon-led boom” rhythm has been broken. Looking back at the year 2023-2025, the hot topic you've been singing about is the lack of a strong thread that runs through:

• Late 2023 – early 2024: Bitcoin ETF was approved with the expectation of setting the market on fire, followed by a scratch on Bitcoin Ordinals

• By 2024:SolanaThis is the case with the rise of ecological power and the short-term prevalence of some moustaches (dogs, etc.)

• Late 2024 – early 2025: the AI concept began to be framed (AI Meme, AI Agent, etc.)

• In 2025, the InfoFi, Binance Meme, the new public chain, x 402 and so on have been red, but for limited periods。

Over-wheeling means that the funding of high-frequency pursuits of short-term hot spots and a lack of sedimentation have resulted in the failure of the roll-out of the banknotes. Many small and medium-sized currencies had fallen early, and bitcoin, although modest, continued to dominate the market value share. This “fragmentation” led to a lack of widespread hysteria later in the cattle market. As a result, the current round of cattle markets appears to be relatively “cooled” when it appears that Bitcoin itself is steadily pushing it below, rather than accompanying the entire encrypted ecology。

3. Early realization of self-realization cyclesI DON'T KNOW. AS THE “FOUR-YEAR HALF-CYCLE” IS WIDELY RECOGNIZED, THE BEHAVIOUR OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS THEMSELVES BEGINS TO CHANGE THE RHYTHM OF THE CYCLE. EVERYONE KNEW THAT IT WOULD RISE WHEN IT WAS HALVED, AND THEN AMBUSHED AHEAD OF TIME, TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, AND SOLD. MANY OF THE OLD PLAYERS ENDED UP IN THE CATTLE MARKET EARLIER THAN USUAL. AT THE SAME TIME, LARGE PLAYERS, SUCH AS ETF HOLDERS, MARKET-MAKING INSTITUTIONS AND MINERS, HAVE ADJUSTED THEIR STRATEGIES ON THE BASIS OF PERIODIC SIGNALS: AS SOON AS PRICES APPROACH THE “THEORETICALLY HIGH” POINT, THEY HAVE COLLECTIVELY REDUCED THEIR RISK AND INCREASED THE PRESSURE ON THE MARKET. COWS CAN BE “SQUEEZED” BEFORE REAL MADNESS, MAKING CYCLES HIGHER THAN HISTORICAL PATTERNS。

4. Macro-policy variables: interwoven external wind indicators。In contrast, the regulatory and political environment, the macro-factors represented by the Federal Reserve's policy and geo-risks, had an unprecedented impact on the encryption market in the current round, making it an important variable for disruption cycles. Upon coming to power, Trump began a series of policies to benefit bitcoin and encryption, but at a slower pace than expected. By the end of 2024, the market was betting on a new liberal cycle, with the general benefit of encrypted assets. However, into the second half of 2025, the macro-winds changed sharply: repeated inflation data and uncertain economic prospects in the United States repeated the Fed ' s expectations of subsequent interest rate reductions. In October 2025, in particular, the US-China trade tariff friction triggered a collapse in the stock market, which began to question whether the Fed would slow down interest rates. Uncertainty about the interest rate outlook places the risk asset under overall pressure, and Bitcoin also follows risk-averse moods。

5. DOUBLE-SIDED IMPACT OF THE DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY (DAT)。Since 2024, a new phenomenon has been the growing number of institutions and listed companies that incorporate encrypted assets such as bitcoin into their balance sheets and form digital asset banks (Digital Assembly Treaties, DAT). Large, such as MicroStrategy, has been increasing its holdings of bitcoin as a company reserve, and small companies, as small as many unrelated industries, have announced the purchase of encrypted currency to increase market value. These institutions, whose currency holders provide a continuous buyout in cattle markets, act as “water reservoirs” and are actively deployed to help the market rise. However, DAT also harbours risks: most of these companies are built up at high levels, and once prices fall, their assets fall short and may be subject to investor pressure or even forced to lose. Although no large-scale sales have been made, the existence of DAT holders has left the market with an additional layer of concern at the bottom of the price. The rise of DAT is a new element of the current cycle, which reinforces the “digital gold” attributes of bitcoin, but also implies greater cyclical volatility and traditional financial linkages。

IN SUMMARY, THE COMBINATION OF ETF/INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS, FRAGMENTATION NARRATIVES, EXPECTED RETROGRESSION, MACRO-POLICY, DAT AND OTHER MULTIPLE VARIABLES HAS SHAPED THE “UNUSUAL” CYCLE OF 2024-2025, AND WE NEED A MORE MACRO- AND COMPLEX PERSPECTIVE. A SIMPLE APPLICATION OF PAST CYCLE PATTERNS MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO COPE WITH THE CURRENT AND THE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THE DRIVERS BEHIND THE CYCLE AND THE NEW CHANGES IN MARKET STRUCTURE。

V. Outlook and conclusions

With 2025 coming to an end, Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads after a rapid return: is it the end of this round of cattle, the beginning of the bear market, or is it still strong and ready for the next wave? There was a clear divergence of market views. Looking ahead to December 2025 and 2026, we need to consider cycle patterns and the impact of new variables in a comprehensive manner and to take into account multiple perspectives to shape rational expectations。

• A periodic perspective: The end of the cattle market is now in place, and bears are emergingPERIODIC ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THE HISTORIC HIGH OF $126K IN OCTOBER 2025 IS ALREADY THE PEAK OF THE ROUND ' S CATTLE MARKET, WHICH WILL THEN ENTER A LONG ADJUSTMENT PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT (2028) IS HALVED. IN VIEW OF THE LACK OF MAD BUBBLES AT THE HEIGHT OF THE ROUND, THE FALL WAS MODEST OR MILD. IT HAS ALSO BEEN ARGUED THAT THE CURRENT BEAR CITY MAY “SLOW DOWN” RATHER THAN FALL IN WATERFALL FORM. THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASED MARKET RESILIENCE CAUSED BY INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS, SUCH AS FALLING TO THE $50K-$60K ZONE AND ENTERING A LONG EXERCISE TO COMPLETE THE BEAR MARKET IN SPACE FOR TIME. THE VIEW WAS ALSO EXPRESSED THAT THE TRADITIONAL FOUR-YEAR MODEL WAS NO LONGER APPLICABLE, HAD ENTERED BEAR CITY SIX MONTHS EARLIER AND WAS NOW IN THE LATTER PART OF BEAR CITY. IN GENERAL, THE QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS TENDS TO INDICATE THAT THE Q4-OPENED FALL MARKS THE TURN OF THE BEAR AND THAT THE MAIN TREND WAS WEAKER IN 2026, BUT THAT THE DROP AND RHYTHM MAY BE SLOWER THAN IN THE HISTORICAL BEAR CITY AND THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LONG GROUNDING。

• Macro perspective: policy easing or buffering, and risk assets remain viable。From a macro point of view, bitcoin may be much more friendly in 2026 than in 2022-2023. The world’s major central banks ended the austerity cycle in 2024-2025, and the Fed expects to start the interest-rate reduction cycle by the end of 2025, with the market now giving the probability of a 25bp reduction of about 85 per cent in December, and with interest-rate cuts expected to occur several times in 2026. Low interest rates and ample liquidity are better anti-inflation assets, such as currency, which means that even if the cycle goes down, macro easing is expected to prevent deep price declines. If this judgement is correct, then the spring of Bear City may appear in 2026: With falling interest rates and a steady economy, risks have recovered, and some of the incremental funds have re-entered the encryption field, bringing a phased rebound to the market. It is possible that in 2026 bitcoin came out of the U or L base: the first half of the year continued the concussion floor, and the second half gradually recovered with the interest-rate effect. At the macro level, there is also a need to be wary of the potential risks: when the global economy is caught in a severe recession and geopolitical shocks escalate, the benefits of interest-rate erosion may be counterbalanced by risk-averse sentiments, and then the movement of bitcoin may be reshocked. On the whole, easing is expected to give hope to 2026, but the market reverses or turns around。

• Market structure perspective: institutional gaming and rational pricing are normal。AFTER 2024-2025, THE STRUCTURE OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY, WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TREND IN 2026. THE HIGHER SHARE OF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDING MEANS THAT FUTURE PRICE VOLATILITY WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY FUNDAMENTALS AND DATA, WITH RELATIVELY LESS SHORT-TERM EMOTIONAL EFFECTS. ETF STORAGE COSTS (APPROXIMATELY $89K) WILL BECOME AN IMPORTANT TECHNICAL POSITION: IF PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW THE COST LINE, THEY MAY TRIGGER FURTHER OUTFLOWS OF ETF FUNDS TO CONTAIN THE REBOUND; CONVERSELY, A NEW ROUND OF FINANCE MAY ENTER ONCE THE MARKET HAS STABILIZED ABOVE THIS LINE. IN THE CASE OF THE DIGITAL ASSET BANK (DAT), THERE MAY BE DIVISIONS IN 2026: SOME BITCOIN TREASURY COMPANIES MAY BE FORCED TO REDUCE THEIR HOLDINGS IF THEIR STOCK PRICES ARE LOW OR FINANCIAL PRESSURES ARE UNDER PRESSURE, BUT THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE MORE FIRMS FROM BRINGING BITCOIN INTO THE ASSET RESERVE AT A LOW RATE, THUS CREATING A SURPLUS. THE MINING INDUSTRY IS A LONG-TERM SELLER AND ITS PRODUCTION COSTS (ESTIMATED AT $40K-$50K) WILL ALSO AFFECT THE BOTTOM: IF PRICES BREAK THE COST OF CASH FOR TOO LONG, MINERS WILL HAVE REDUCED PRODUCTION OR CUT OFF OPPORTUNITIES TO SUPPLY AND HELP BUILD THE BOTTOM. THE FACT THAT THE BITCOIN MARKET IN 2026 WILL BE MORE MATURE AND RATIONAL DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS A LACK OF TRADING OPPORTUNITIES, BUT THAT THE DRAMA OF POIGNANT WEALTH WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REPEAT。

However, a number of top institutions still have high confidence in the long-term prospects of TT$. ARK Invest reaffirmed the vision of $1.5 million by 2030, and long-term optimism underpinned the market's conviction. In the short to medium term, however, investors are more interested in the actual path of 2026. 2026 may be a test of patience。

Concluding remarks

In conclusion, bitcoin ' s four-year cycle has not really expired, but it is undergoing changes. Markets in 2024-2025 tell us that halving supply shocks is still happening, with invisible hands driving long-term trends; however, the entry of institutional capital, the involvement of macro-environments, and changes in investors’ expectations have collectively shaped a more complex new cycle. But we also see the rise of the forces of reason, the progress of infrastructure and the decline of long-term values。

For encrypted investors, this means upgrading their perceptions and strategies: embrace data-driven analysis, embrace long-line value investments and embrace structural opportunities. More important is the rational response cycle: remain calm when cattle markets are high, and firmly believe when bear markets are down. After all, bitcoin continues to experience several rounds of innovation, with only minimal value and network effects. The cycle may be longer, the amplitudes may be shrinking, but the direction of the long-term rise remains unchanged. Each round of adjustment is a triumph and a failure, allowing truly valuable assets to sink; each innovation breeds new growth points and keeps the industry evolving。

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Risk tip

The encrypted currency market is more volatile and investments carry risks themselves. We strongly recommend that investors invest in strict risk management frameworks based on a full understanding of these risks to ensure financial security。